As the geopolitical landscape shifts, U.S. foreign policy toward Iran faces several critical risks in 2026. Firstly, the continuation of nuclear tensions poses a significant threat. With stalled negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, the potential for increased proliferation could destabilize the region. Secondly, domestic unrest within Iran remains a concern; a volatile political environment may lead to unpredictable responses from Tehran.

Moreover, U.S. relations with allies in the region, particularly Israel and Gulf states, are crucial. Any misalignment could undermine collective security efforts against Iranian influence. The role of proxy conflicts in places like Syria and Yemen adds another layer of complexity, as Iran supports groups opposing U.S. interests.

Additionally, the rise of China as a strategic partner for Iran complicates U.S. efforts to isolate Tehran. Lastly, economic sanctions have had mixed results; ongoing sanctions may drive Iran further from diplomacy. Collectively, these risks challenge U.S. policymakers in effectively navigating its Iran strategy.

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